Al Kholood vs Al Taawon
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-22 · 18:10 CET
DWDWD
LDLDLThe score model made an Al Taawon win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Kholood 1.03 – 1.65 Al Taawon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Kholood win | 23.2% | 32.2% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.8% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Al Taawon win | 51.4% | 40.0% | +11.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 51.6% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 31.3% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 56.8% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 35.6% | +4.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Kholood 35.9 / Al Taawon 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.