Al Khaleej vs Al Shabab
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-22 · 20:00 CET
DDLLD
DDDLLThe score model made an Al Shabab win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Khaleej 1.42 – 1.66 Al Shabab.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Khaleej win | 32.5% | 37.3% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.0% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Al Shabab win | 42.8% | 36.7% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 58.1% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 36.9% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | 61.5% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 39.5% | +1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Khaleej 44 / Al Shabab 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.