Al Fateh vs Al Ettifaq
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-22 · 17:45 CET
LDDDL
WLLWDThe score model made an Al Ettifaq win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Fateh 1.35 – 1.48 Al Ettifaq.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Fateh win | 34.2% | 40.1% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.3% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Al Ettifaq win | 39.8% | 33.6% | +6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 60.4% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 39.7% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | 63.6% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.9% | 41.1% | -7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Fateh 44 / Al Ettifaq 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.