Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-21 · 18:00 CET
LDWLD
WWWLWThe score model made an Al Nassr win the most likely outcome at 78%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Riyadh 0.79 – 2.74 Al Nassr.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh win | 7.9% | 9.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 14.4% | 16.1% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Al Nassr win | 77.7% | 74.3% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.5% | 66.7% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.0% | 46.4% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 52.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 45.1% | -5.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Riyadh 41 / Al Nassr 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.