Al Fayha vs Al Hilal
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-20 · 20:00 CET
LDWDL
WWWWLThe score model made an Al Hilal win the most likely outcome at 72%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Fayha 0.81 – 2.41 Al Hilal.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Fayha win | 10.3% | 8.5% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.5% | 15.5% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Al Hilal win | 72.2% | 76.0% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.5% | 60.1% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.3% | 38.7% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | 44.8% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | 41.3% | +1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Fayha 43.6 / Al Hilal 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.