Al Taawon vs Al Khaleej
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-15 · 18:15 CET
LDLDL
DDLLDThe score model made an Al Taawon win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Taawon 1.84 – 1.07 Al Khaleej.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Taawon win | 55.1% | 47.4% | +7.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 25.9% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Al Khaleej win | 21.2% | 26.7% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 56.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 35.6% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 58.8% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 38.3% | -4.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Taawon 43.6 / Al Khaleej 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.