Al Ittihad vs Al Kholood
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-15 · 20:00 CET
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DWDWDThe score model made an Al Ittihad win the most likely outcome at 67%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ittihad 2.32 – 0.99 Al Kholood.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ittihad win | 66.8% | 62.2% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.0% | 21.6% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Al Kholood win | 14.2% | 16.3% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.1% | 58.8% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.0% | 37.6% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | 54.7% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 53.5% | 39.9% | +13.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Ittihad 43.1 / Al Kholood 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.