Neom SC vs Al Fayha
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-14 · 18:50 CET
WLLWW
LDWDLThe score model made a Neom SC win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Neom SC 1.38 – 1.01 Al Fayha.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neom SC win | 44.8% | 55.2% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 25.1% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Al Fayha win | 27.0% | 19.7% | +7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 51.1% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 30.1% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 52.0% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 35.0% | -6.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Neom SC 23.9 / Al Fayha 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.