Al Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-14 · 20:00 CET
WLLWD
LDWLDThe score model made an Al Ettifaq win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 4:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ettifaq 1.66 – 0.96 Al Riyadh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ettifaq win | 53.3% | 44.9% | +8.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.1% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Al Riyadh win | 21.3% | 29.0% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | 58.7% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 37.8% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 61.5% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.3% | 40.1% | -8.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Ettifaq 43.1 / Al Riyadh 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.