Al Shabab vs Al Qadisiya
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-13 · 20:00 CET
DDDLL
WWDLWThe score model made an Al Qadisiya win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.14 – 1.48 Al Qadisiya.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shabab win | 28.7% | 18.2% | +10.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 21.2% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Al Qadisiya win | 44.3% | 60.6% | -16.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 64.1% | -15.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 43.5% | -16.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 60.7% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 43.8% | -9.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Shabab 43.2 / Al Qadisiya 16 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.