Al Jandal vs Al Wehda
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-20 · 17:55 CET
LWLDD
DWDWDThe score model made an Al Wehda win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Jandal 1.26 – 1.63 Al Wehda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Jandal win | 28.8% | 23.6% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.2% | 25.5% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Al Wehda win | 45.1% | 50.9% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 55.0% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.8% | 34.0% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | 57.0% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 37.8% | -3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Jandal 42.4 / Al Wehda 26.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Jandal vs Al Wehda in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.