Al Anwar vs Al Najma
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-19 · 17:35 CET
WWDDD
DDDWWThe score model made an Al Anwar win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Anwar 1.43 – 1.30 Al Najma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Anwar win | 39.4% | 33.8% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 28.9% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Al Najma win | 33.3% | 37.3% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 46.1% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 26.4% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 52.3% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 33.2% | +3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Anwar 26.4 / Al Najma 20.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Anwar vs Al Najma in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.