Al Taee vs Al Bukiryah
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-18 · 17:50 CET
LDWLL
LLLLDThe score model made an Al Taee win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Taee 1.36 – 1.04 Al Bukiryah.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Taee win | 43.2% | 48.0% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 27.1% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Al Bukiryah win | 27.7% | 25.0% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 49.2% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 29.1% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 52.6% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 33.8% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Taee 37.2 / Al Bukiryah 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Taee vs Al Bukiryah in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.