Al Wehda vs Al Adalah
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-21 · 19:50 CET
LDDDD
WDLWDThe score model made an Al Wehda win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Wehda 1.99 – 1.53 Al Adalah.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Wehda win | 48.2% | 62.0% | -13.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 21.9% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Al Adalah win | 29.5% | 16.2% | +13.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | 57.8% | +10.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.9% | 36.7% | +10.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 68.1% | 53.9% | +14.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.2% | 39.8% | +5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Wehda 22.8 / Al Adalah 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.