Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-11-07 · 17:30 CET
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DWWLWThe score model makes a Krasnodar win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 55.2% vs 47.4% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Krasnodar 1.67 – 1.22 CSKA Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Krasnodar win | 46.5% | 44.0% | +2.5% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.6% | -0.8% |
| CSKA Moscow win | 26.7% | 28.4% | -1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 47.4% | +7.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.8% | 27.3% | +5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 52.4% | +6.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 33.3% | +3.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Krasnodar 42.1 / CSKA Moscow 42.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.