Fakel Voronezh vs Dynamo Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-11-07 · 12:00 CET
DLLWL
WWWWLThe score model makes a Dynamo Moscow win the most likely outcome at 65%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Dynamo Moscow win — 65.3% vs 58.2% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fakel Voronezh 0.74 – 1.97 Dynamo Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh win | 12.0% | 17.2% | -5.2% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 24.6% | -1.9% |
| Dynamo Moscow win | 65.3% | 58.2% | +7.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 46.3% | +4.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 25.5% | +3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 46.5% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 32.4% | -1.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Fakel Voronezh 25.5 / Dynamo Moscow 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Fakel Voronezh vs Dynamo Moscow in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.