Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rubin Kazan
Premier League, Russia · 2026-11-06 · 17:30 CET
LDWDL
DDLLLThe score model makes a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 50.7% vs 45.4% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lokomotiv Moscow 1.59 – 1.11 Rubin Kazan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Moscow win | 47.2% | 46.8% | +0.4% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.5% | +0.2% |
| Rubin Kazan win | 25.1% | 25.7% | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 45.4% | +5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 25.5% | +3.2% |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 50.1% | +4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 31.9% | +0.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Lokomotiv Moscow 41.2 / Rubin Kazan 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rubin Kazan in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.