Fakel Voronezh vs Akhmat Grozny
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-10 · 18:30 CET
LDLLL
DLWDDThe score model made an Akhmat Grozny win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fakel Voronezh 0.92 – 1.06 Akhmat Grozny.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh win | 29.7% | 30.9% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.7% | 29.2% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Akhmat Grozny win | 36.6% | 40.0% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.8% | 42.0% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.9% | 22.3% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.7% | 48.5% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 28.4% | -3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fakel Voronezh 18.8 / Akhmat Grozny 38.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.