Spartak Moscow vs Krasnodar
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-09 · 19:00 CET
LWWDL
WWWDDThe score model made a Krasnodar win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 1.33 – 1.48 Krasnodar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Moscow win | 33.0% | 46.4% | -13.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.7% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Krasnodar win | 39.5% | 26.9% | +12.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 53.5% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 32.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 57.3% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 36.1% | -0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Spartak Moscow 38.3 / Krasnodar 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.