Rubin Kazan vs Orenburg
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-09 · 19:30 CET
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DDDDDThe score model made a Rubin Kazan win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rubin Kazan 1.49 – 0.84 Orenburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Kazan win | 51.2% | 47.7% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 28.4% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Orenburg win | 20.1% | 23.9% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% | 43.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 24.0% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | 48.1% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.8% | 29.4% | -4.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rubin Kazan 36 / Orenburg 38.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.