Dynamo Moscow vs Dynamo Makhachkala
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-09 · 13:30 CET
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LWLLWThe score model made a Dynamo Moscow win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dynamo Moscow 1.71 – 0.80 Dynamo Makhachkala.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Moscow win | 57.9% | 56.1% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 25.8% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Dynamo Makhachkala win | 16.2% | 18.1% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 45.2% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 25.1% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 46.1% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 30.8% | +5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dynamo Moscow 38.2 / Dynamo Makhachkala 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.