Lokomotiv Moscow vs Akron Togliatti
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-08 · 17:00 CET
DDLLW
DLDDDThe score model made a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely outcome at 69%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lokomotiv Moscow 2.59 – 1.08 Akron Togliatti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Moscow win | 69.4% | 67.2% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.5% | 19.0% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Akron Togliatti win | 13.1% | 13.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.9% | 62.9% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.9% | 41.4% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | 54.3% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 85.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 54.9% | 42.7% | +12.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lokomotiv Moscow 38.3 / Akron Togliatti 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.