CSKA Moscow vs FK Rostov
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-08 · 19:30 CET
WWDWW
DLLWWThe score model made a CSKA Moscow win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.61 – 0.81 FK Rostov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow win | 55.4% | 16.0% | +39.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 23.9% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| FK Rostov win | 18.0% | 60.1% | -42.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 50.0% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 29.3% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 48.8% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 33.4% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Moscow 38.3 / FK Rostov 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.