Krasnodar vs Fakel Voronezh
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-02 · 19:15 CET
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LDLLLThe score model made a Krasnodar win the most likely outcome at 77%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Krasnodar 2.18 – 0.45 Fakel Voronezh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krasnodar win | 77.0% | 71.5% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.2% | 18.3% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Fakel Voronezh win | 5.8% | 10.2% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 52.3% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 31.5% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 32.9% | 41.9% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.3% | 35.9% | -9.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Krasnodar 37.8 / Fakel Voronezh 18.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.