Akhmat Grozny vs Spartak Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-02 · 21:30 CET
DLWDD
LWWDLThe score model made a Spartak Moscow win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Akhmat Grozny 1.11 – 1.43 Spartak Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat Grozny win | 28.4% | 24.6% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 27.1% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Spartak Moscow win | 43.5% | 48.3% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 50.0% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 29.8% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 53.2% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 33.9% | +4.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Akhmat Grozny 37.8 / Spartak Moscow 37.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.