Dynamo Makhachkala vs Lokomotiv Moscow
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-01 · 17:30 CET
LWLLW
DDLLWThe score model made a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dynamo Makhachkala 1.00 – 1.30 Lokomotiv Moscow.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Makhachkala win | 27.7% | 27.7% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 27.9% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Lokomotiv Moscow win | 42.6% | 44.4% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.6% | 45.5% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.2% | 25.4% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 50.7% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 30.5% | +1.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dynamo Makhachkala 32.4 / Lokomotiv Moscow 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.