CSKA Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-01 · 15:15 CET
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LWDDDThe score model made a CSKA Moscow win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 2.02 – 0.85 Krylya Sovetov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow win | 63.8% | 63.8% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 21.0% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Krylya Sovetov win | 14.3% | 15.2% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 56.4% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 34.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | 51.2% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 37.8% | +1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Moscow 37.9 / Krylya Sovetov 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.