Akron Togliatti vs Rubin Kazan
Premier League, Russia · 2026-08-01 · 13:00 CET
DLDDD
DDDWDThe score model made a Rubin Kazan win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Akron Togliatti 1.22 – 1.35 Rubin Kazan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron Togliatti win | 32.9% | 32.7% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 29.4% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Rubin Kazan win | 38.9% | 37.9% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 43.2% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 23.4% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 49.9% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 29.3% | +7.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Akron Togliatti 32.4 / Rubin Kazan 35.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.