FC Arges vs Farul Constanta
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-14 · 20:30 CET
DLWWW
DLWDWThe score model makes a FC Arges win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 32%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 62.5% vs 49.9% implied (+12.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Arges 1.26 – 0.74 Farul Constanta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arges win | 48.5% | 42.2% | +6.4% |
| Draw | 30.0% | 29.5% | +0.5% |
| Farul Constanta win | 21.5% | 28.3% | -6.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.2% | 44.2% | -12.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.2% | 24.9% | -10.7% |
| Both teams to score | 37.5% | 50.1% | -12.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.5% | 30.7% | -5.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Arges 33.1 / Farul Constanta 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.