FC Arges vs Farul Constanta
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-14 · 20:30 CET
LLLDL
DDDWLThe score model made an FC Arges win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Arges 1.26 – 0.73 Farul Constanta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arges win | 48.5% | 40.6% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 30.0% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Farul Constanta win | 21.4% | 29.4% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.2% | 43.7% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.2% | 24.2% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.5% | 49.9% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.5% | 30.2% | -4.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Arges 33 / Farul Constanta 46.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.