Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe vs FCSB
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-10 · 20:30 CET
DLLWD
DLWWDThe score model makes a Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win — 42.4% vs 25.2% implied (+17.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 1.36 – 1.11 FCSB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe win | 42.4% | 25.2% | +17.2% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.3% | +0.2% |
| FCSB win | 30.1% | 47.5% | -17.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 49.7% | -4.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.6% | 29.3% | -5.7% |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 53.4% | -3.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.2% | 34.2% | +3.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sepsi Sf. Gheorghe 18.5 / FCSB 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.