Univ. Craiova vs FC Arges
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-09 · 18:30
The score model makes a Univ. Craiova win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Univ. Craiova 1.41 – 0.65 FC Arges.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. Craiova win | 55.1% | 57.1% | -2.0% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 25.5% | +2.3% |
| FC Arges win | 17.1% | 17.4% | -0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.9% | 45.0% | -11.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.3% | 24.6% | -9.2% |
| Both teams to score | 36.3% | 45.1% | -8.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 30.6% | -5.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Univ. Craiova 46.1 / FC Arges 32.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.