Univ. Craiova vs FC Arges
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-09 · 20:30 CET
WDWWW
LLLDLThe score model made a Univ. Craiova win the most likely outcome at 55%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Univ. Craiova 1.41 – 0.65 FC Arges.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. Craiova win | 55.2% | 59.6% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 24.9% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| FC Arges win | 16.9% | 15.5% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.9% | 44.6% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.3% | 24.5% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 36.3% | 44.0% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.5% | 30.5% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Univ. Craiova 45.9 / FC Arges 32.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.