Petrolul vs Otelul
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-09 · 15:30
The score model makes a Petrolul win the most likely outcome at 35%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Petrolul 1.03 – 1.01 Otelul.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrolul win | 35.0% | 34.0% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 30.9% | 30.1% | +0.8% |
| Otelul win | 34.0% | 35.9% | -1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.3% | 41.3% | -8.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.9% | 22.2% | -7.3% |
| Both teams to score | 41.0% | 48.4% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 28.6% | -4.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Petrolul 45.2 / Otelul 43.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.