Petrolul vs Otelul
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-09 · 17:30 CET
WLWWD
DWDLLThe score model made a Petrolul win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Petrolul 1.03 – 1.00 Otelul.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrolul win | 35.1% | 33.8% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.1% | 30.4% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Otelul win | 33.8% | 35.8% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.3% | 40.9% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.9% | 21.9% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.0% | 48.4% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.6% | 28.6% | -5.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Petrolul 45 / Otelul 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.