Farul Constanta vs Csikszereda M. Ciuc
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-08 · 15:30
The score model makes a Farul Constanta win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Farul Constanta 1.92 – 0.85 Csikszereda M. Ciuc.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farul Constanta win | 62.2% | 61.8% | +0.3% |
| Draw | 21.9% | 22.4% | -0.5% |
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 15.9% | 15.8% | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 55.3% | -3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 34.4% | -4.3% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 51.8% | -2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 38.0% | +3.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Farul Constanta 46.2 / Csikszereda M. Ciuc 29.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.