Farul Constanta vs Csikszereda M. Ciuc
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-08 · 17:30 CET
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DLLLLThe score model made a Farul Constanta win the most likely outcome at 62%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Farul Constanta 1.92 – 0.85 Csikszereda M. Ciuc.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farul Constanta win | 62.2% | 61.4% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.0% | 22.5% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Csikszereda M. Ciuc win | 15.8% | 16.2% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 55.5% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 34.4% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 52.0% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 37.8% | +3.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Farul Constanta 46 / Csikszereda M. Ciuc 29.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.