UTA Arad vs FC Rapid Bucuresti
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-07 · 18:00
The score model makes an FC Rapid Bucuresti win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: UTA Arad 1.13 – 1.26 FC Rapid Bucuresti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Arad win | 32.7% | 36.8% | -4.1% |
| Draw | 28.1% | 29.9% | -1.8% |
| FC Rapid Bucuresti win | 39.2% | 33.3% | +5.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 45.4% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 25.5% | -3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 51.6% | -2.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.8% | 31.2% | -2.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: UTA Arad 45.3 / FC Rapid Bucuresti 46.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.