UTA Arad vs FC Rapid Bucuresti
Liga 1, Romania · 2026-08-07 · 20:00 CET
DWWLW
WDWWWThe score model made an FC Rapid Bucuresti win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: UTA Arad 1.13 – 1.26 FC Rapid Bucuresti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Arad win | 32.7% | 33.2% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 29.6% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| FC Rapid Bucuresti win | 39.2% | 37.1% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.8% | 45.0% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 25.1% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 51.8% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 31.2% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: UTA Arad 45.1 / FC Rapid Bucuresti 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.