Sporting CP vs Moreirense
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-11-07 · 21:30 CET
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WDLWWThe score model makes a Sporting CP win the most likely outcome at 81%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 69.0% vs 66.7% implied (+2.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sporting CP 2.84 – 0.72 Moreirense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP win | 81.3% | 80.7% | +0.6% |
| Draw | 11.7% | 12.4% | -0.7% |
| Moreirense win | 7.0% | 7.0% | +0.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | 66.7% | +2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.6% | 46.0% | +1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 46.1% | +1.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.0% | 45.9% | +1.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sporting CP 28.6 / Moreirense 28.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sporting CP vs Moreirense in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.