FC Porto vs Benfica
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-20 · 21:30 CET
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WWWLWThe score model made an FC Porto win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Porto 1.30 – 1.05 Benfica.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 42.5% | 32.3% | +10.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.4% | 28.6% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Benfica win | 30.1% | 39.1% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 51.1% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 30.6% | -9.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | 56.7% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 33.7% | -5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Porto 26.8 / Benfica 26.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Porto vs Benfica in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.