Estoril vs Casa Pia
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-20 · 19:00 CET
DLLLL
DLWLWThe score model made an Estoril win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Estoril 1.79 – 0.87 Casa Pia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril win | 59.2% | 55.1% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 24.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Casa Pia win | 18.0% | 20.0% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 53.9% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% | 33.1% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 54.4% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 36.3% | +1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Estoril 26.8 / Casa Pia 28.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Estoril vs Casa Pia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.