Nacional vs Famalicao
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-09-19 · 16:30 CET
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DDDWLThe score model made a Famalicao win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nacional 0.87 – 1.08 Famalicao.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional win | 29.1% | 25.2% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.8% | 28.8% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Famalicao win | 40.1% | 46.0% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.8% | 43.8% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.3% | 23.8% | -10.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 38.0% | 48.9% | -10.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.8% | 30.2% | -8.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nacional 26.8 / Famalicao 26.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nacional vs Famalicao in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.