Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-24 · 21:15 CET
LWWDL
LLLLDThe score model made a Gil Vicente win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gil Vicente 1.81 – 0.70 Casa Pia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente win | 64.5% | 55.2% | +9.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.1% | 27.0% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Casa Pia win | 14.4% | 17.8% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 40.9% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.4% | 21.5% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.5% | 43.4% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 28.3% | +3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gil Vicente 23.1 / Casa Pia 25.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.