Santa Clara vs Famalicao
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-23 · 19:00 CET
DWWDW
DLLDDThe score model made a Famalicao win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 26%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Santa Clara 0.83 – 0.95 Famalicao.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 30.6% | 33.8% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.0% | 32.5% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Famalicao win | 37.4% | 33.7% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26.4% | 34.4% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.5% | 16.9% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 34.1% | 43.0% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 24.1% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Santa Clara 24.2 / Famalicao 24.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.