FC Porto vs Arouca
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-23 · 21:30 CET
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WWLWDThe score model made an FC Porto win the most likely outcome at 77%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.44 – 0.66 Arouca.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 76.7% | 75.4% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.8% | 16.1% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Arouca win | 8.5% | 8.6% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% | 58.1% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.5% | 36.7% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 43.4% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.1% | 39.4% | +2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Porto 24.2 / Arouca 24.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.