Estoril vs Rio Ave
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-22 · 19:00 CET
DLLLD
LLWLLThe score model made an Estoril win the most likely outcome at 58%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Estoril 1.96 – 1.07 Rio Ave.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril win | 58.3% | 45.8% | +12.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.0% | 27.5% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Rio Ave win | 20.7% | 26.7% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 51.5% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 30.6% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 55.3% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.5% | 35.3% | +5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Estoril 24.2 / Rio Ave 24.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.