Casa Pia vs Benfica
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-17 · 21:15 CET
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WDWWWThe score model made a Benfica win the most likely outcome at 69%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:7 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Casa Pia 0.70 – 2.01 Benfica.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia win | 12.4% | 6.9% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.1% | 14.6% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Benfica win | 68.5% | 78.5% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 60.5% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 39.5% | -10.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | 42.7% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 41.3% | -3.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Casa Pia 25.2 / Benfica 23.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.