Rio Ave vs FC Porto
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-15 · 21:30 CET
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WWWWWThe score model made an FC Porto win the most likely outcome at 68%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rio Ave 0.59 – 1.84 FC Porto.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave win | 11.5% | 11.4% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.7% | 20.0% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| FC Porto win | 67.8% | 68.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 52.9% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% | 32.2% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.2% | 45.7% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 36.0% | -9.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rio Ave 23.5 / FC Porto 23.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.