Moreirense vs Braga
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-09 · 21:30 CET
DDLWL
DDDWWThe score model made a Braga win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Moreirense 1.02 – 1.67 Braga.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense win | 23.2% | 16.9% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 24.4% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Braga win | 52.9% | 58.7% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | 48.5% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% | 27.7% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 48.2% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 33.2% | +4.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Moreirense 22.8 / Braga 22.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.