Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-09 · 21:30 CET
LWWDL
LLWLLThe score model made a Gil Vicente win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gil Vicente 1.83 – 0.83 Rio Ave.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente win | 61.4% | 47.4% | +14.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.0% | 27.9% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Rio Ave win | 16.6% | 24.6% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 46.2% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 26.3% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 51.2% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 31.5% | +2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gil Vicente 22.8 / Rio Ave 22.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.