FC Porto vs Alverca
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-09 · 19:00 CET
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LDLDLThe score model made an FC Porto win the most likely outcome at 77%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.21 – 0.49 Alverca.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 77.2% | 78.4% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 16.0% | 14.6% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Alverca win | 6.9% | 7.0% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 58.1% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 36.6% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 34.4% | 40.1% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.6% | 40.2% | -10.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Porto 22.8 / Alverca 22.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.