Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-08 · 19:00 CET
LLWLD
WWLWDThe score model made a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vitoria Guimaraes 1.74 – 1.38 Arouca.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria Guimaraes win | 45.9% | 49.0% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 27.0% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Arouca win | 30.5% | 24.0% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 49.5% | +10.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.0% | 28.8% | +9.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 53.0% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 33.7% | +7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vitoria Guimaraes 22.8 / Arouca 22.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.