Estrela vs Sporting CP
Liga Portugal, Portugal · 2026-08-08 · 21:30 CET
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DWWWWThe score model made a Sporting CP win the most likely outcome at 75%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Estrela 0.83 – 2.57 Sporting CP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela win | 9.8% | 9.0% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 15.5% | 16.3% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Sporting CP win | 74.7% | 74.7% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | 58.5% | +7.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.1% | 37.3% | +6.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 45.6% | +6.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 40.6% | +1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Estrela 22.8 / Sporting CP 22.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.