Feirense vs FC Porto B
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-08-24 · 21:15 CET
DLLLL
LLWLLThe score model made a Feirense win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Feirense 1.18 – 1.05 FC Porto B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 39.4% | 41.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 29.8% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| FC Porto B win | 32.6% | 28.9% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.6% | 41.9% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.7% | 22.6% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% | 48.6% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 28.4% | -0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Feirense 43.4 / FC Porto B 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.